Where are the Peaks?
A quick, small analysis on how batting peaks are dwindling
Relative Averages
Relative Average (RA) measures how much better (or worse) a batter performed than peers under comparable conditions, using batting average as the performance metric. Comparable conditions here are defined by ground, year, and bowling type (pace or spin). A batter’s overall RA is the simple mean of his pace‑RA and spin‑RA, giving equal weight to both.
For each ground–year against a particular bowling-kind, the local RA component is the ratio of the batter’s average to the mean average of the top seven batters in that same setting. Averaging those ratios across all ground–years a batter appears in yields his RA.
What this means is that Steven Smith’s average of 56 is 44.2% higher for the conditions he played in. An average top-7 batter would have averaged 38.83 facing those parameters. We’ll be using the RA values in this one to show how the 2020s have been the most difficult for batting, relatively as well. Averages being low is one thing and relative averages being low is another - we start with this assumption.
Analysis
Shrinking Spectrums
The WTC has completed 3 seasons and we have started seeing concrete trends. Days of 500 runs are over (unless its England playing, they apparently don’t consider themselves as WTC participants), 40+ average is godly and draws only exist to criticize the pitch curators once in a while. The 2020s have also made batting peaks difficult. There will be relative peaks of course but we might not see Smith 2014-2017 kind of run making. This is because the difference between an average batter and a peak batter is decreasing. Look at this plot for instance, comparing peak to parity (which is 1) -
Williamson (2020–2024) is the lowest peak performance at a relative average of 1.642 across a 5‑year phase. Diving a bit deeper into statistics, if we consider the mean and standard deviation of all batters with more than 1000 runs in these five phases, this is what the graph looks like
Two things here for 2020–2024: one is the standard deviation being low, which suggests closeness between batters; the other is the mean being 1 (1.003 to be exact), indicating closeness to an average batter, strengthening the point about peak difficulty. Deviation in the game against spin has naturally always been higher. That against pace has also seen a sharper decline in deviation compared to 2015–2019. This means batter performances against pace have become similar and there are fewer peaking chances. The overall quality among 1000+ run batters has seen a steeper fall against spin, but there’s still more spin deviation than there has ever been against pace.
Easy Conditions = Easy Peaks
Extremely difficult conditions lower the advantages of experience and skill, and easier conditions lead to greater chances of a peak, even relatively. One example illustrating this is how the best pace RA in Asia is better than that in SENA, and how it is the opposite for spin.
India’s case highlights this the best. Indian batters struggled against their own strength - spin, on extreme pitches and the seasoned Pujara-Kohli-Rahane trio went through their worst phases simultaneously.
Everyone would score on flat pitches, but experienced, pro batters earlier would churn out massive scores and there you saw players averaging 100 for a full year. 2020-2024 has reduced that effect as well. It was the only phase where four of the top five batters (1000+ runs) - Kamindu Mendis, Saud Shakeel, Yashasvi Jaiswal and Harry Brook made their debuts in it.
What about Shorter Periods?
Even when we look at short phases, consistency has been difficult in the 2020s. These are the best and worst two‑year phases we’ve seen in the 2000s
Among the top 50 2‑year peaks in the 2000s, only 6 years from 2020–2024 feature in the list (Warner 19–20, Bairstow 22–23, Rahane 19–20, Root 20–21), and that too when Warner only played 2 innings in 2020 and Rahane had a much better 2019. The count of bad years goes to 24.
What lies ahead then? Whatever little case the England–India series presented in favour of batting peaks was quickly destroyed by Aus–WI. I do think India will now use extreme pitches with caution—maybe just to force results in series deciders or to gain WTC points. Other than that, I think Test cricket is fun right now.
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